Boom or Bubble? Neither.

I can’t help being amused by the debate over whether “Web 2.0″ is a buzzword, a boom or a bubble.

If you look at the sources linked above, you’ll notice that they’re all geeks posting on blogs about blogging (except the New York Times, of course, which is writing about geeks posting on blogs about blogging). My question for everyone so concerned with this is how much has Web 2.0 penetrated average Americans’ homes and lives? Sure, Flickr and del.icio.us have lots of members, and not only that, many of those members are passionate about the tools. But, does that passion make up for the fact that probably 90 percent of America (think about most people’s parents) would give you a blank stare if you told them you’d put your Christmas photos on Flickr, or to search for something on del.icio.us instead of Google (or, more likely, “in the top bar on Internet Explorer”).

Case in point. I got a dog recently. (She’s wonderful, by the way.) I wanted to see what kinds of dog resources were out on the Web. Forums, cool sites, blogs, whatever. I tried Google, but not surprisingly, got lots of commercial sites and stuff that was more interested in making a buck than fostering dog-owner communities. So I tried some del.icio.us searches. Without saying anything more, take a look at the “popular” pages tagged “dog.” Yes, anecdotal, but it’s the kind of thing I see repeated over and over on Web 2.0 sites.

I think before we start debating if this is a boom or a bubble, we should look at just how big Web 2.0 actually is. I think it has vast potential, but right now, it doesn’t have the breadth that Bubble 1.0 ever had, where Mom and Dad were day-trading on E*Trade and dinner table conversation was about how so-and-so’s son got a job working in Silicon Valley right out of college and is pulling down at least six figures.

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